Epidemiology: bringing you death and destruction since 1854
Study design most likely to lead to this earth-shattering discovery? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
“A team of researchers at Johns Hopkins University have found a link between the consumption of dog urine and the decreased likelihood of heart attacks, team leaders announced Tuesday in cracking, uneven voices.”
Smokers: colon cancer
Daughters and wives of smokers: infertility
Adults with asthma: pneumococcal disease
Sri Lankan farmers: rat fever
Cancer survivors: osteoporosis
Rotund folk: everything
60%+ of the American population: heart failure
Hajjis: meningitis
Insomniacs: heart disease
Headbangers: brain damage (Best quote: “The study’s authors also observed the headbanging of cartoon characters Beavis and Butthead. Listening to the Ramones’ I Wanna Be Sedated, Beavis kept his “angular head velocity” within safe limits, they wrote. Butthead did not.”)
Welcome back, epi lvrs and data geeks! I am DONE with my MPH (!!!) and can concentrate on all kinds of blogging goodness again.
In today’s episode of Fun with bad stats, we will look at the exciting nexus of death, politicians, and fiery plane crashes. Let’s break it down.
Translation: A US Senator or Representative’s odds of dying in an aircraft accident are 966.8 times those of a person who is not in Congress.
Why the stats are bad: A teensy numerator does not a statistically significant calculation make. Oh, and ’cause the overall average number of deaths is just from the past 5 yrs, not the past 36 (yeah, yeah, could’ve probably found that, but hey? what do you expect?) Methodologically, the number’s weak because it does not account for flying frequency.
(No, that’s not one of the crashes of interest — just an interesting pic)
Fox News: US Politicians Killed in Plane Crashes
Nova: How Risky is Flying?
BoingBoing: Man who set up alternate email for White House dies in plane crash
Long story short: Lyme disease cases, like cases of many diseases, are clustered geographically in specific areas. Lyme is very uncommon, bordering on unknown, in areas outside the endemic zone.
Here is a map showing the risk of Lyme disease nationally:
Notice that cases are clustered in the northeastern US. Don’t let overcaution worry you too much if you are in a light pink area. Cases in those places aren’t unheard of, but happen once in a blue moon; ie, “yeah, we had one about six years ago”, etc. For a little more detail, check out your state’s stats, according to the CDC. The incidence is reported at the far right and gives you perspective on how common or rare the disease is—for example, in Alabama in 2006, there were 0.2 new cases per 100,000 people. Pretty safe odds.
Thanks to the national attention given Lyme, though, folks are seeing bullseye rashes everywhere. If you aren’t in an endemic area, certainly get checked out—but don’t think every unexplained spell of fatigue is because of that hike you took last Saturday.
Don’t forget there are plenty of other happy tick-borne diseases, too: Tularemia, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, etc. There’s even an illness transmitted by the Lone Star Tick that mimics Lyme, known as “southern tick-associated rash illness” (STARI). If you have a circular rash and a fever and live below the Mason-Dixon line, STARI is much more likely than Lyme.
Now, don’t go ignoring obvious and persistent symptoms—but, if you don’t live in the dreaded black or dark pink areas above, don’t fret too much about Lyme disease, either.
If you use any of four specific moisturizers (one of which is no longer sold, but the others
are—gasp!—available at many fine retailers) and happen to be a mouse, your chance of skin cancer could be increased by as much as 95%.
Especially interesting:
The moisturizers did not cause cancer in the mice. That came from their early-life radiation exposure. But the creams did make skin cancers grow faster and more readily.
Who should worry now: Mice who use skin cream.
Why most of us shouldn’t freak out quite yet: No biological mechanism is known that could cause an increase in skin cancer rate (one of the criteria of causation).
WebMD: Moisturizers Up Skin Cancer in Mice
WAHHOOOO! My first job in public health is on the horizon! I start Monday. I’m helping an intervention-based state program that’s on its last legs; it’s shutting down in a few months. In the meantime, though, I’ll get to do all sorts of fun stuff, like clean data and prepare files for storage, ferry extra promo materials around the state and — joy of joys! — act as interim data manager. All for a salary that actually makes it seem as though my grad degree has been worthwhile!
Every once in a while, a “new” disease pops up and we all totally freak out. Often, these aren’t actually new—it’s just that we catch on that they’re going around (sometimes, they’re omnipresent, making them paradoxically invisible: check out Rotavirus for more on that). In any case, in addition to SARS, one of the more recent ones we’re freaked out about is West Nile.
If you see dead birds, call the Health Dept, wear DEET-containing repellent, eliminate mosquito breeding areas, clear out undergrowth to encourage air flow in your yard, yadda yadda yadda.
Of course, it usually isn’t very bad if you aren’t immune-compromised, and in any case it kills thousands fewer than your typical influenza bug. Which do you think gets more coverage, though?
Hey, I have an idea! It’s been shown that human infections of West Nile pick up in late summer, coinciding with the migratory patterns of WNV-carrying mosquitoes’ favorite bloodmeal: the robin. It’s hard to prove it conclusively, but it sure seems that as their preferred meal moves away from an area, mosquitoes turn to their second choice—people. In other areas of the country, similar things have been shown with crows. Mebbe we
should go out of our way to feed and accommodate those birdies and keep them around as long as possible. Here, birdy birdy…better you than me.
Of course, that could create other issues…
Oh noes! Apparently, “Hot weather brings risk of heat-related illness.”
No. No! Really? If it’s hot, you might have an illness somehow related to that heat? Unbelievable. Crazy, crazy world, isn’t it?
Read my disclaimer, hold your breath, and jump below to check out what’s killing us today…
OK, this one I’m actually kind of pissed off about, mostly ’cause it might end up costing me some money.
